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Wednesday, 10 June 2009

Gordon Brown to go in early 2010

Gordon Brown struggles on in power. Despite the fact that several government ministers have resigned in protest against his leadership, the disastrous local and European election results, the rules of the party make it difficult to actually oust him from power. In many ways, the historically low poll-ratings of the Labour Party, helped to ensure his survival. One of the reasons why the public has turned against Brown is that he has never been endorsed as prime minister of the electorate (he even replaced Tony Blair without facing a contest in the Labour Party). Brown argues that any new leader of the party, unlike him, will have to call a General Election to get the approval of the British population. The polls suggest that the party would be decimated in any election.

The members of Parliamentary Labour Party have sensibly allowed him to hold onto office. I image they will overthrow him early in 2010. The new leader will then announce that a General Election will take place in three months time. He will then announce the ended of the ID scheme, PFI, the cancelling of Trident, an end to MPs having second jobs, and a fully elected House of Lords. He will also propose a form of Proportional Representation for elections to both houses. This will be part of a referendum on constitutional change on General Election day. David Cameron and the Tories will be forced to campaign against these changes as they know that they will find it impossible to win a general election under such a system. However, it will also help to ensure that the Tories are not the largest party in the election. I say this because I expect the economy to be showing signs of recovery and that the new Labour leader will be benefiting from the poll boost that comes during the “honeymoon” period of government. Labour will not have an overall majority but they will have little difficulty forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in return for the introduction of PR that would have been endorsed in the referendum.

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